From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”