A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
